A new report under the Heat Roadmap Europe umbrella once again highlights the vast potential of district heating across Europe. But to realize it, heat planning must speed up, says Professor Brian Vad Mathiesen, one of the experts behind the analysis.
Original text in Danish by Flemming Linnebjerg Rasmussen, Danish District Heating Association, translated by DBDH – Photo: TBLM Studios
The latest edition of Aalborg University’s Heat Roadmap Europe analyses was presented on Wednesday to an international audience during Euroheat & Power’s Summit in Brussels.
Mapping Europe’s hidden heat potential
In short, the report is the result of extensive modelling and mapping conducted by Danish energy planning specialists at Aalborg University. It outlines a path – a roadmap – toward a Europe powered by green energy, and just as importantly, a Europe free from dependency on imported fuels such as Russian gas.
“We’ve examined all the heat sources that today go to waste — the heat that literally flies off to the sparrows — because Europe currently uses only a fraction of its potential. We’ve mapped the opportunities to recover excess heat from both existing and future industries, as well as from data centres, electrolysis plants, and much more,” explains Brian Vad Mathiesen in a break following his presentation in Brussels.
Electrification and flexibility are key
The analysis also includes the potential for utilizing heat from waste-to-energy plants, wastewater facilities, data centres, geothermal energy, and other sources. Beyond mapping, the study assesses these opportunities at a high strategic level.
“Locating all these heat sources is one thing – determining whether they are practical to use is another. We’ve looked at where the resources are and compared that with where the demand exists. For example, it makes little sense to develop geothermal heat if high-temperature heat sources are already available nearby,” Mathiesen notes.
The report also concludes that large-scale heat pumps will be crucial everywhere if district heating is to become electrified. Overall, the analysis predicts that 35–40% of European district heating will be electrified.
“The key, roughly speaking, is steel tanks that can store hot water for one or two days during winter. If we succeed in that, we gain the flexibility to integrate much more renewable electricity into district heating,” says Mathiesen.
Efficiency first: Massive energy savings required
The Aalborg University roadmap also assumes massive energy savings – Europe must become significantly more energy-efficient to reach the goal.
From A to B: Making the Transition
So far, so good – the roadmap lays out the vision of what a green European energy transition could look like.
But if we are currently at point A, and the Heat Roadmap Europe report describes point B – a decarbonised Europe – how do we get from A to B?
“A much larger share of Europe needs to engage in heat planning. We can model the potential and outline the big picture, but local authorities must see the concrete benefits and economic value,” says Mathiesen.
Bottom-up momentum and strategic investments
According to the professor, EU member states, municipalities, and cities must initiate their own local heat planning processes. Once that starts, local momentum will follow — enabling communities to take charge and launch their own district heating projects.
“Much of it must happen bottom-up. It could start with a hospital in ‘City X’ being connected to a heat network, and then grow from there. But we also need investment at a scale and pace that likely requires public funding to really accelerate the rollout,” he says, adding that it’s a sound investment – both economically and for energy security.
Can we afford not to act?
Mathiesen acknowledges that today’s global agenda focuses heavily on security and defence rather than green transition. Still, he insists that following the Heat Roadmap is the only sensible path forward for Europe.
“When the invasion of Ukraine began, many policymakers welcomed our analysis — because it already showed how to achieve what they wanted: independence from Russian gas,” he explains.
“And one might ask – can we afford not to act? Europe’s dependence on energy imports is extremely high. Yet, when we look only at the potential of geothermal and excess heat, it exceeds 3 PWh – more than the current total heat demand. Of course, we can’t capture all of it, but it shows Europe has plenty of resources to build on.”
Benchmarks for a greener future
Mathiesen hopes that countries will now take advantage of the data and modelling provided by Aalborg University to conduct their own national or regional analyses. His vision is that district-heated homes will one day be as common across Europe as they are in Denmark – which is far from the case today.
“It may sound odd to some,” he smiles, “but these are benchmarks we’ve created. I believe the technical and economic potential is even greater than we indicate, while the realizable potential may be somewhat smaller — but still absolutely worth pursuing. The goal of all this is to accelerate the decisions we make now, rather than to reach a specific target by 2025. Then we’ll see where we end up.”
How much district heating must grow
According to Aalborg University’s Heat Roadmap Europe analysis, the share of Europe’s heat demand met by district heating could beneficially increase to 55% by 2055.
This would require district heating to grow by 7% annually until 2030, and by 5% annually until 2050. For comparison, district heating in France grew by 9.3% in 2024, showing that the target is achievable if the right measures are implemented.
The analysis estimates that this expansion will require establishing around 20,000 new district heating systems across Europe.
By 2050, individual heat pumps are expected to cover 30% of heat demand, while other solutions will supply the remaining share.
Translated from the original article in Danish by Flemming Linnebjerg Rasmussen, Danish District Heating Association – Photos by TBLM Studios
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